(Madan Menon Thottasseri)
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The International Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament (ICNND),a joint initiative of Japan and Australia, looks forward to contribute to the current global effort mainly for creating a new impetus to review the threat of nuclear weapons and its’ complete elimination. The nuclear threat demands serious attention together with that of new threats like global recession and prospects of pandemic, climate change etc. Nuclear weapons will always be a big risk to the whole world as at any time there is a chance that either any state or even non-state actors can misuse it intentionally or accidently.
Probably, at present the nuclear war-head numbers may be comparatively less from the Cold War period. Still an estimated potentially destructive 23,000 war heads in existence and many times powerful than the ones that destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki. When the nuclear armed states have stock piles of weapons which can be launched within minutes, how will they put forth serious proactive steps to the common commitment for a nuclear weapon-free world?
Hiroshima, being the world’s first city to endure with an atomic bombing had the privilege to be the venue for the meeting of the International Panel on nuclear proliferation and disarmament in October, 2009. The ICNND was co-chaired by former Japanese Foreign Minister Yoriko Kawaguchi and Former Australian Foreign Minister Gareth Evans. It is important for the city in Japan, the nuclear victim to become a venue to advocate for a world without nuclear weapons as commented by Kawaguchi after meetings with Evans and Yasuo Fukuda, Prime Minister of Japan.
The Final Report of the commission will be released in January, 2010 on the hope of building a consensus in the run-up to a Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference in May, 2010.
In fact, the commission decided to back off from its initially intended arms reduction goal due to objections for many members. The Panel targeted reducing the number of nuclear warheads in the world from more than 20,000 at present to 1,000 or even fewer by 2025 and to prompt every nuclear State to commit to a no-first-use doctrine.
The Three-Phase action agenda consists of short, medium and long terms covering periods to 2012, 2025 and beyond 2025 to achieve its key recommendations. The commission members agreed to declare by 2012 that the sole purpose of the retained arsenals will be to deter others from using such weapons against them or their allies! It is evident from this that the big-shot nuclear countries are not having any ideas in the near future to deviate from their despotic attitudes or to gracefully obliterate stockpiles of arms hanging atop the world.
It is to be noted that the Canberra Commission , in it’s report released in 1996 launched by the Australian government had already called for nuclear powers-U.K, U.S.A, France, Russia and China to initiate actions to halt nuclear testing and adopt no-first-use doctrine but without a specific timetable. Now the present Commission envisages releasing a report by January, 2010 to offer the road map for the ultimate goal of a world free of nuclear weapons as advocated by U.S President Barack Obama in the U.N. Security Council!
By 2012, the commission is set out to bring the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) into force to conclude negotiations on a Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty (FMCT) so as to reach an agreement on equitable sharing of the cost burden of disarmament and non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. The CTBT will ban all nuclear tests and upon finalizing FMCT, production of fissile materials for weapons or devises will be totally prohibited.
Beyond 2025 nuclear states will be pushed toward the total abolition of nuclear arms, but again without any time limit for the same as the so called long term agenda is included just to motivate other states currently out of NPT coverage. Certainly the report is expected to incorporate steps to non-proliferation measures against Israel, Pakistan and India. It is implied that the Conference in May 2010 will look beyond the time and grapple with the critical issue of the commitment of only those countries who have not yet joined the NPT and those who walked away from it or whose decision still remains uncertain.
There are criticisms against the NSG exception granted to India allowing global nuclear trade and fuel commerce. ICNND Commission declared that it will weaken the NPT! Further it wants to impose the condition of signing CTBT on India!
Gareth Evan, the Co-Chairman in the two day regional summit at New Delhi while urging global partners for a safer place by dismantling nuclear weapons asserted that India, Pakistan and Israel who are out of NPT have a vital role to play in the global effort to stream proliferations. In his opinion, if India and Pakistan indicate at least signing NPT, and if U.S and China were to ratify (not going to happen as the whole world knows) particularly the CTBT and then the other countries would follow suit.
The other Co- Chairman Yoriko Kawaguchi expressed concern that the non-state actors or terrorists might get hold of nuclear material and misuse in the form of bombs. She had a valid reason to speculate that either Taliban or various terror outfits in Pakistan attain nuclear capabilities and try their hands to threaten the world?
Unfortunately, Pakistan never intensified actions against certain terrorist groups as the intelligence agencies even see them as their ‘future strategic assets’ against India! Recently there were news reports on the collaboration of the terror network in Afghanistan with local insurgent groups in Pakistan boarder and housing training camps which are grown conveniently smaller and more mobile. Reports on these camps captured news headlines in recent months as the U.S investigation Officers probed the accused New York terror suspect Najibullah Zazi. The Afghan expatriate reportedly flew to Pakistan in the last year and camped at Peshawar in the North-West frontier where he underwent training on weapons and explosives.
Currently, the terror-episode of plotters, David Coleman Headley, a U.S. citizen and the Pakistan born Canadian Tahawwur Hussain Rana who were in Pakistan and India in various cities on different occasions when there was terror attacks at both countries, is revealing more conspiracies. All nuclear installations in India are put on high alert after the investigations which proved that the David Headley purportedly visited places with close proximity to some of these highly vulnerable nuclear locations.
The ICNND Regional Meeting at New Delhi in October, 2009 discussed the NPT pursuing nuclear disarmament preventing the spread of nuclear weapons and the simultaneous usage of nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, mainly for growing energy demands. The regional security dynamics were also analyzed in the context of scope for CBMs (confidence building measures).Since there prevail mounting tensions in certain international boarders and in the absence of progress in resolving the same, the big question still remains unanswered…… how can the nuclear arsenals could be contained? It is very comprehensible that there are regional challenges to be primarily addressed to create conducive state of affairs to move forward the nuclear non-proliferation. The global effort must be synchronized by addressing regional challenges!
U.S.A and European Union have jointly reiterated their commitment to preserve and strengthen the authority and integrity of NPT in the summit held at Washington on 3rd November, 2009. The task of U.S.A and E.U was to apply pressure on India and other non-signatories, to assent for joining the NPT as ‘non-nuclear weapons states’. The summit endorsed consent for the initiatives for new protocols and comprehensive nuclear safeguards prescribed by IAEA. It also advised Iran to interact with U.S.A, U.K, Russia, China, France, Germany (5 +1) to move forward the dialogue commenced at Geneva on 1st October, 2009. The summit welcomed the commitment of U.S.A and Russia towards a new agreement to replace the outmoded START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty)!
Can U.S.A and Russia come together and reduce their nuclear arsenals dramatically and drive the implementation of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT)? If U.S takes the initiative to declare the no-first–use doctrine, will other NATO members follow suit? Why America is still reluctant, off-track and plainly callous on the subject?
India has no avowed desire for parity with China in respect of nuclear capabilities and will not think of counter-weighing the neighbor. No nuclear or non-nuclear nation will suspect the integrity of India as they know that India always gives a thrust for positive negotiation and disintegration of any pressure even at the verge of a war and is desirous of peace in the region. At the same time few find it hard to believe this reality while imagining that India nurses an ostensible aspiration for nuclear weapons’ Capability to show off regional superiority or just to maintain the bargaining power!
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, 1968 intended to restrain the spread of nuclear armaments with the sole idea of eliminating them altogether has fundamentally failed while the four key nuclear nations – India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea were not parties to it.
The Treaty consists of provisions aimed at limiting the spread of nuclear weapons’ technology. The signatories to the Treaty are agreed not to transfer nuclear weapons or technology to any other state. Further these countries have agreed that they would not receive, develop or otherwise acquire nuclear weapons. They are not only agreed to submit safeguards against proliferations established by IAEA but also to co-operate in the development of peaceful nuclear technology. They have to continue negotiations for ending the arms race and limit the spread of technology. The time limit for the Treaty is fixed for 25 years, to be reviewed in every 5 years. Later on all signatories decided by consensus extend the Treaty indefinitely at the Review Conference in New York on 11th May, 1995.
The main force behind the NPT was the concern for safety while many nations became nuclear powers. The cold war situation worsened while many nuclear players condensed security for all, intensifying the risk of nuclear catastrophe at many corners of the world. In 1958, the NPT initiative was launched by Frank Aiken, Irish Minister for External Affairs. When submitted for signature in 1968 Finland signed the Treaty. By 1992 all five nuclear powers –U.S.A, U.K, France, China and U.S.S.R had signed. The Treaty was renewed in 1995.Certain NPT signatories gave up nuclear programs. Though South Africa initiated a nuclear program evidently with the help of Israel in 1970 and even ventured a test in the Atlantic Ocean in 1979, it renounced the whole program upon signing the NPT in 1991 and set an example to destroy the stock of nuclear arsenal. After the disintegration of Soviet Union, many of its former Republics either destroyed or transferred to Russia, all of their weapons which were inherited from the Union.
While the global initiative for NPT was getting momentum, NATO entered secret agreements, of course with the knowledge of Soviet Union which helped America in providing weapons to be deployed by, and stored in other NATO countries. There were arguments against this as an act of proliferation violating Articles of the Treaty. U.S.A came out with counter arguments stating that the transfer was never intended and will not become a breach of NPT. There existed conspiracies by the nuclear-nations right from the very formation of the Treaty. India would have attained nuclear capability solely due to the unquestionable self-defense motives, but later on kept a firm grip on using nuclear technology for wide-ranging peaceful purposes, mainly to combat the energy crisis. Still India is being plagued by new conspiracies from the propagandists of Non-Proliferation movement.
As far as India is concerned, NPT creates only a club of ‘nuclear haves’ and ‘nuclear have-nots’ as it limits legal possession of weapons only by countries that developed nuclear arsenal upon testing prior to 1967.So far the Treaty could not explain the ethical reasons for maintaining such a distinction. This proves that NPT is flawed and the powerful nations at the helms of affairs should find a way out to facilitate for an acceptable solution to prompt countries like India to sign the Treaty. Even by opting out of NPT, due to a clean track record, India could get NSG waiver with the support of U.S.A. This may be a break-through in the renewed Indo-U.S relations. This will no way justify Obama to thrust on non-proliferation issues to tame the emerging regional power- India. Nor this exemption will ever compel India to sign the Treaty as expected by any antagonist nuclear nations.
How can anyone expect India with so much of threats from across the boundaries to sign NPT while two neighbors China and Pakistan have stockpiles of nuclear weapons? Unfortunately due to host of geographical and political reasons, of course known to the world, India is entangled into host of adverse situations wherein not even a peace-loving simple villager will assent for his nation to be a signatory as a ‘non nuclear weapons state’ in NPT. Any Treaty will be acceptable only when a signatory nation feels like a beneficiary and served the purpose of a common interest. Unquestionably India cannot afford to deprive of its security.
India is one of the countries opted to have the ‘No-first-use’ policy, pledging for not using nuclear weapons unless attacked by an enemy country by nuclear weapons. Though not signed NPT or CTBT, India has already declared a unilateral moratorium on testing nuclear weapons which is appreciated by a large majority of countries around the globe.
The NPD Panel has to understand that the very heartening initiatives of India demonstrably strengthen the Indian Stand and this should not go unnoticed while reviewing the issue of non-proliferation.
CTBT is adopted by General Assembly of United Nations and 150 countries have been ratified the same. The Treaty will come into force only when all 44 countries mentioned in the Annex II ratify it. Of these only 32 countries have signed and ratified, 9 countries which includes China, Egypt, Iran, Indonesia, Israel and U.S have signed but not ratified.3 countries – India, Pakistan and North Korea are still not signed it. The CTBT calls for a total ban on nuclear tests.
Nuclear weapons states conducted more than 20000 tests during the past 5 – 6 decades and now they have a stockpile of over 30,000 weapons! India wants them to first disarm these weapons and demand for cessation of tests by the late runners in the so called nuclear-race. India precisely objects the discriminatory Treaty and is quite affirm not to sign the same.
Sometimes, Obama who is celebrating as a champion of peace with the Nobel adornment may be keen that U.S ratifies CTBT, but it will be unattainable for him to muster two-thirds majority in the U.S Senate!
What is the justification to expect India in signing up NPT and CTBT? Is there any prospect for revamping these blemished Treaties to the satisfaction all nations? US-EU formation should explore the prospects for a refurbished NPT and CTBT to dispel the consternation of non-signatory countries.
The demanding need of India to become a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council is being declined in anticipation of signing these Treaties? Finally any good news in the offing? As Prime Minister Manmohan Singh reaches Washington on 21st November,2009 one of the leading South Asia‘ experts has urged President Obama to seize the opportunity and announce in favour of India’s claim to become a permanent member of U.N Security council. The Indian born Ashley J. Tellis, Senior Associate in the Carnegie Endowment opinioned that Obama’s positive announcement on this matter will elevate him at par with his predecessor George W.Bush who proclaimed the landmark civil nuclear deal with India during Prime Minister Manamohan Singh’s previous State visit to U.S in 2005.
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Note: Though the Article was ready prior to 24th November,2009 before the visit of Prime Minister Man Mohan Singh in U.S, the posting of the same is delayed due to unforeseen reasons.
